“Emboldenment” effect of media on insurgency; Update: just one day and Nancy Pelosi does it again
March 13th, 2008 by Republican By DefaultHarvard economists Radha Iyengar, Jonathan Monten have found a link between “war critical statements” in the U.S. media and “insurgent attacks”:
Are insurgents affected by information on US casualty sensitivity? Using data on attacks and variation in access to international news across Iraqi provinces, we identify an “emboldenment” effect by comparing the rate of insurgent attacks in areas with higher and lower access to information about U.S news after public statements critical of the war. We find in periods after a spike in war-critical statements, insurgent attacks increases by 5-10 percent. The results suggest that insurgent groups respond rationally to expected probability of US withdrawal. As such counterinsurgency should consider deterrence and incapacitation rather than simply search and destroy missions. [emphasis added]
(Link to abstract)
Anecdotally this has been known from a long time by troops and officers stationed there. I wonder if having an egghead point it out will make any difference to the people who make those “war critical statement”. I won’t be holding my breath on that one.
So now now it becomes clear that anti-war activists who claim to support the troops have really been supporting the enemy against the troops.
There are caveats in the finding, but the net result is the same. Insurgents responded to stories in the U.S. media and planned their attacks accordingly.
I’m not implying that public discourse should be stifled. However, it’s not too difficult to find constructive ways to discuss the war without emboldening our enemies. The men and women in our military willingly put themselves in harm’s way. We don’t need to make it worse.
Update: Unbelievably, contrary to the evidence discussed above, Nancy Pelosi issued disparaging remarks about the war effort on her official Web site (http://www.speaker.gov/blog/?p=1215)
Petraeus’ Remarks on Lack of Progress in Iraq Prove Bush’s Iraq Policy Has Failed
March 14th, 2008 by Speaker PelosiAfter almost five years of war and nearly 4,000 American lives lost, General Petraeus’ admission proves that the President’s Iraq policy has failed. President Bush and other Republicans can no longer credibly claim that their status quo Iraq strategy is working.
Americans demand a New Direction in Iraq that includes responsible redeployment so we can strengthen our military’s readiness and refocus on the real fight against terrorism. Democrats in Congress wholly reject a continuation of the President’s 10-year, trillion dollar war in Iraq.
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